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Higher natural gas prices drove up US Western wholesale spot power prices an average of 63% year on year in November despite lower demand and milder weather, as winter power forwards are about double year-ago packages on higher gas forwards.

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California Independent System Operator peakload dropped 12% year on year to average 27.923 GW in November, according to CAISO data. CAISO population-weighted average temperatures were 60.8 degrees Fahrenheit, up 6.6% year on year, leading heating degree days to be 32.5% lower than a year ago and 29% lower than normal, according to CustomWeather data.

Bonneville Power Administration peakload was little changed year on year, averaging 6.55 GW, according to BPA data. Population-weighted average temperatures were 6% higher than normal at 47.3 F leading heating degree days to be16.3% below normal, according to CustomWeather data.

Higher gas prices continued to drive up power prices.

NP15 on-peak day-ahead location marginal prices averaged $60.61/MWh for November, up 50.2% year on year, while on-peak real-time LMP climbed 61.7% to average $53.57/MWh, according to CAISO data.

On-peak day-ahead LMPs reached as high as $76.67/MWh on Nov. 1 as solar generation dipped to 9.6% of the total fuel mix, down 5 percentage points day on day, leading gas generation to climb nearly 10 points on the day to 47.7% of the mix, the highest level during the month, according to CAISO data.

PG&E city-gate spot gas jumped 59.3% year on year to average $6.080/MMBtu in November, according to S&P Global pricing data.

Mid-C hourly on-peak prices averaged $46/MWh in November, 66.7% higher year on year, according to Platts pricing data.

Thermal generation decreased about 2 percentage points year on year but still led the generation stack with an average of 36.2% of the total fuel mix for November, according to CAISO data. Gas generation dipped as low as 26.4% of the mix Nov. 28 as imports reached a 10-month high of 34.8%.

Overall, imports slipped 2.3 points year on year to average 25.2% of the mix in November. November imports peaked at 10.774 GW at 8:38 pm PT Nov. 30, according to CAISO's latest Key Statistics report. The all-time imports peak record is 11.894 GW reached Sept. 21, 2019.

Solar-powered generation increased 1.3 points year on year to average 13.1% of the total fuel mix in November. November solar peaked at 11.323 MW at 11:04 am PT Nov. 5, according to CAISO's latest Key Statistics report. The all-time solar peak record is 13.205 GW reached May 21. Solar accounts for 58% of CAISO's total installed renewable resources.

CAISO has added 1 GW of solar this year and anticipates adding another 2.2 GW by June 2022, CAISO President and CEO Elliot Mainzer said Dec. 9.

Power forwards continued to trend higher as the six- to10-day forecast indicated below-normal temperatures are more probable, according to the US National Weather Service. The three-month outlook shows mixed temperature probabilities in the West.

Mid-C on-peak November rolled off the curve at $56.50/MWh, 53.3% above where the 2020 package ended last year, according to Platts data. The January package is currently in the mid-$60s/MWh, 87% above its 2021 counterpart a year ago after averaging 107.4% higher in November trading. On-peak February is in the upper $50s/MWh, 81% higher.

Palo Verde on-peak January is currently in the mid-$50s/MWh, 75% above the 2021 package last year after averaging 104% higher in November trading. On-peak February is currently in the upper $40s/MWh, 59% above where its 2021 counterpart was a year ago.

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